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A Level Maths · Statistics · Year 12 and 13

A Level Maths Probability revision

Probability questions reward a good diagram. Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and two-way tables turn wordy questions into arithmetic; Year 13 adds conditional probability and set notation.

  • Same content for AQA, Edexcel and OCR
  • Step-by-step mark schemes
  • 48-hour free trial, no card
What you need to know

Probability in Year 12 and Year 13

AS content is usually taught in Year 12. The full A Level adds the Year 13 content.

Year 12 (AS content)

  • Mutually exclusive and independent events
  • Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and two-way tables

Year 13 (full A Level only)

  • Conditional probability, including set notation P(A | B)
  • Modelling with probability and questioning the assumptions

Worked examplemedium3 marks

Given that $P(X) = 0.4$, $P(Y) = 0.5$, and $P(X \cap Y) = 0.2$, find the conditional probability $P(X | Y)$.

Mark scheme and worked answer
  1. M1 for using the conditional probability formula: $P(X | Y) = \frac{P(X \cap Y)}{P(Y)}$.
  2. M1 for substituting the values to get $\frac{0.2}{0.5}$.
  3. A1 for the final exact answer $0.4$.

Then practise: skills to practise · open probability practice questions.

Where it's examined

Probability on the AQA, Edexcel and OCR papers

Every board examines the same A Level Maths content, set by the Department for Education. Only the paper it appears on and the section numbering differ.

BoardSpecification referenceExamined in
AQA 7357AQA section MPaper 3, Section B
Edexcel 9MA0Edexcel topic Statistics 3Paper 3, Section A
OCR A H240OCR reference 2.03Paper 2, statistics section
Practice questions

A Level Maths probability exam-style questions

Three examples from the question bank. Every question comes with a step-by-step mark scheme (M, A and B marks) once you start practising.

Question 1easy2 marks

Events $A$ and $B$ are mutually exclusive. Given that $P(A) = 0.3$ and $P(B) = 0.45$, find $P(A \cup B)$.

Mark scheme: in the 48-hour free trial.

Question 2medium3 marks

Given that $P(A) = 0.5$, $P(B) = 0.6$, and $P(A \cup B) = 0.85$, find $P(A \cap B)$.

Mark scheme: in the 48-hour free trial.

Question 3hard3 marks

A bag contains 5 green counters and 3 yellow counters. A counter is drawn at random, its colour is noted, and it is replaced. This is done 3 times in total. Find the probability that exactly 2 green counters are drawn.

Mark scheme: in the 48-hour free trial.

Questions are original and written in the style of Edexcel 9MA0, and cover content that AQA and OCR examine too. They are not past-paper questions.

In the practice engine

Skills you can practise

These skills sit in the Statistics unit of the UK A Level practice engine. Pick any mix of them, set the difficulty, and check each answer against its mark scheme.

Basic probability & sample spaceVenn diagramsMutually exclusive & independent eventsConditional probabilityProbability tree diagramsTwo-way tables

Open Statistics practice

Past papers

Past paper questions on probability

Probability can come up on these papers (from each board's paper structure). We haven't mapped individual questions yet, so open a recent paper and look for it.

BoardRecent papers that can test it
Edexcel 9MA0Paper 3: June 2024, June 2023, June 2022
AQA 7357Paper 3: June 2023, June 2022, November 2021
OCR H240Paper 2: June 2024, June 2023, June 2022

Papers are © the exam boards; each page links to the official question paper and mark scheme. All A Level Maths past papers →

Probability: common questions

Is probability on the AQA, Edexcel and OCR A Level Maths exams?

Yes. Probability is part of the A Level Maths content that every board examines: AQA section M, Edexcel Statistics 3, OCR 2.03. It is assessed in AQA Paper 3, Section B; Edexcel Paper 3, Section A; OCR A Paper 2, statistics section.

Is probability Year 12 or Year 13 content?

Both. The AS content, usually taught in Year 12, is: Mutually exclusive and independent events; Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and two-way tables. The full A Level adds: Conditional probability, including set notation P(A | B); Modelling with probability and questioning the assumptions.

How do I show two events are independent?

Show that P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B), or that P(A | B) = P(A). Say which one you are testing and write a conclusion.

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