How big should a clinical trial be?: a maths EPQ idea
A title to start from
How many patients does a clinical trial need for enough statistical power, and what goes wrong when it is too small?
Why it works as an EPQ
Hypothesis testing and power, with simulations showing what small trials do to conclusions.
Scope and difficulty
Solid. Solid. One outcome, two groups, simulation.
The maths
Builds on these A Level topics: Hypothesis testing · Statistical distributions · Sampling and data.
You would learn:
- Statistical power
- Effect size
- Sample-size formulas
One possible plan
- Explain type I and II errors in a trial.
- Derive a sample-size formula for comparing proportions.
- Simulate trials of different sizes.
- Judge the ethics of trials that are too small or too large.
Pitfalls
- Confusing statistical and clinical significance.
- Using trial results without reading the paper.
Where to start reading
- The Art of Statistics (David Spiegelhalter)
- Search for: sample size calculation two proportions power
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