Maths in biology and medicine · Solid · Dissertation

DNA evidence and the prosecutor's fallacy: a maths EPQ idea

Why it works as an EPQ

Conditional probability errors in court are well documented, and the mathematics is exactly the A Level kind.

Scope and difficulty

Solid. Solid. Two or three well-documented cases from reliable sources.

The maths

Builds on these A Level topics: Probability.

You would learn:

• Bayes' theorem
• The prosecutor's fallacy
• Independence assumptions

Learning maths beyond the course is expected in a maths EPQ, but you must understand and explain everything you use.

One possible plan

1. Explain match probabilities and what they assume.
2. Show the prosecutor's fallacy with numbers.
3. Analyse documented cases using reliable published accounts.
4. Recommend how evidence should be presented.

Pitfalls

• Treating independence as automatic.
• Speculating about real people beyond the published record.

Where to start reading

• Search for: prosecutor's fallacy Royal Statistical Society
• Search for: Sally Clark case statistics

Prefer books, lecture notes, journal articles and official data to a single website, and record every source as you read (how to reference).

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All maths in biology and medicine ideas · all 93 ideas

Your EPQ must be your own work. These pages coach: ideas, structure, checklists and planning. Submitting text, proofs, code or analysis written by someone else or by an AI tool as your own is malpractice. How to use help and AI honestly.