Does sacking a football manager work?: a maths EPQ idea
A title to start from
Does sacking a football manager improve results, or is it regression to the mean?
Why it works as an EPQ
A clear test of a popular belief with public data, and a statistical idea most people have never met.
Scope and difficulty
Solid. Solid. One league over several seasons, with a fair comparison group.
The maths
Builds on these A Level topics: Sampling and data · Hypothesis testing · Statistical distributions.
You would learn:
- Regression to the mean
- Matched comparison groups
- Points per game as a measure
One possible plan
- Explain regression to the mean with a simulation.
- Collect results before and after sackings in one league.
- Find similar bad runs where the manager stayed, as a comparison.
- Judge what the data can and cannot show.
Pitfalls
- No comparison group.
- Choosing the time windows after looking at the results.
Where to start reading
- Search for: regression to the mean football manager sacking study
- Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman), on regression to the mean
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All statistics and data ideas · all 93 ideas
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